We establish the first mathematically rigorous link between Bayesian, variational Bayesian, and ensemble methods. A key step towards this it to reformulate the non-convex optimisation problem typically encountered in deep learning as a convex optimisation in the space of probability measures.

We establish the first mathematically rigorous link between Bayesian, variational Bayesian, and ensemble methods. A key step towards this it to reformulate the non-convex optimisation problem typically encountered in deep learning as a convex optimisation in the space of probability measures. The result is a unified theory of various seemingly disconnected approaches that are commonly used for uncertainty quantification in deep learning---including deep ensembles and (variational) Bayesian methods. This offers a fresh perspective on the reasons behind the success of deep ensembles over procedures based on parameterised variational inference, and allows the derivation of new ensembling schemes with convergence guarantees. We showcase this by proposing a family of interacting deep ensembles with direct parallels to the interactions of particle systems in thermodynamics, and use our theory to prove the convergence of these algorithms to a well-defined global minimiser on the space of probability measures.

This work presents a mathematical treatment of the relation between Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). We show that energy-based SOM models can be interpreted as performing gradient descent, minimizing an approximation to the GMM log-likelihood that is particularly valid for high data dimensionalities. The SOM-like decrease of the neighborhood radius can be understood as an annealing procedure ensuring that gradient descent does not get stuck in undesirable local minima. This link allows to treat SOMs as generative probabilistic models, giving a formal justification for using SOMs, e.g., to detect outliers, or for sampling.